Skip to main content
  • Paul Scherrer Institut PSI
  • PSI Research, Labs & User Services

Digital User Office

  • Digital User Office
  • DE
  • EN
  • FR
Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI)
Search
Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI)

Hauptnavigation

  • Research at PSIOpen mainmenu item
    • Research Initiatives
    • Ethics and Research integrity
    • Scientific Highlights
    • Scientific Events
    • Scientific Career
    • PSI-FELLOW
    • PSI Data Policy
  • Research Divisions and LabsOpen mainmenu item
    • Overview
    • Research with Neutrons and Muons
    • Photon Science
    • Energy and Environment
    • Nuclear Energy and Safety
    • Biology and Chemistry
    • Scientific Computing, Theory and Data
    • Large Research Facilities
  • Facilities and InstrumentsOpen mainmenu item
    • Overview
    • Large Research Facilities
    • Facilities
    • PSI Facility Newsletter
  • PSI User ServicesOpen mainmenu item
    • User Office
    • Methods at the PSI User Facilities
    • Proposals for beam time
    • Proposal Deadlines
    • Data Analysis Service (PSD)
    • EU support programmes
  • New ProjectsOpen mainmenu item
    • SLS 2.0
    • IMPACT
  • DE
  • EN
  • FR

Digital User Office (mobile)

  • Digital User Office

You are here:

  1. PSI Home
  2. Labs & User Services
  3. NES
  4. LEA
  5. Technology Assessment
  6. Methods
  7. Risk Assessment
  8. Risk Assessment for Critical Infrastructures

Secondary navigation

Technology Assessment

  • Research Areas
    • Life Cycle Assessment
    • Environmental Impacts Assessment
    • Internal Cost Analysis
    • Risk Assessment
    • Mobility
    • Decision Support
  • Methods Expanded submenu item
    • Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
      • Global Sensitivity Analysis in LCA
      • Prospective LCA
    • Environmental Impact and External Cost Assessment
    • Risk Assessment Expanded submenu item
      • Accident Risk Assessment
      • Bayesian Approaches
      • Risk Assessment for Critical Infrastructures
    • Decision Support
      • Composite Indicators
      • Interacting criteria
      • spatial MCDA
  • People
    • Former Group Members
  • Projects
    • Closed Projects
  • Publications
    • Preprint Journal Articles
    • Journals and Books
    • Reports and Working Papers
  • Theses and Internships
  • Conference
  • Tools
  • News & Scientific Highlights

Risk Assessment for Critical Infrastructures

Accident risk assessment covers both comparative analysis (e.g., among technologies, scenarios), and analysis of specific critical infrastructure disruptions and their associated consequences (e.g., fatalities, supply disruption, etc.). In the context of critical energy infrastructure, two main methodological approaches have been used by PSI’s Technology Assessment group, namely metamodeling and complex network analysis.

Metamodeling is based on the framework developed by Sudret (2007), which takes into account uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis. This framework can be subdivided in four main steps: (1) a computational model is set up to solve the physical problem under interest and all inputs and outputs are defined; (2) marginal probability distributions for each uncertain input and dependences among the inputs are defined; (3) the input uncertainty is propagated through the computational model; (4) a sensitivity analysis completes the framework by identifying inputs that contribute most to the output variability. Such analysis identifies the most prominent uncertain input parameters that affect the uncertain outputs and could help stakeholders in prioritizing the measurements to be adopted to reduce the effect of an unwanted event. At PSI a framework based on metamodeling has been developed for the risk to the human health due to a dam break (e.g., Kalinina et al., 2020).

Complex network analysis is useful to assess the risk of a disruption for specific infrastructure networks. The method allows a simplif representation, while important features such as the network topology are retained. Complex networks assessment is based on three main phases (Lustenberger et al., 2019): (1) transform the real network into a connected and undirected weighted graph with no loop; (2) estimate the flow in the graph, e.g., by using a maximum flow estimation; (3) assess the impact on the network due to a disruption. Such an analysis can identify possible network related issues, and support stakeholders to develop mitigation strategies that improve system resilience. At PSI a complex network analysis framework has been developed to assess the effects of a disruption, triggered by accidents or natural hazards, on the supply at the European Natural Gas network level (e.g., Lustenberger et al., 2019).

A selection of references on the topic are shown below, while further publications can be found here.

Selected References

Kalinina, A., Spada, M., Vetsch, D., Marelli, S., Whealton, C., Burgherr, P., Sudret, B., 2020. Metamodeling for Uncertainty Quantification of a Flood Wave Model for Concrete Dam Breaks. Energies 13(14). http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13143685

Lustenberger, P., Schumacher, F., Spada, M., Burgherr, P., Stojadinovic, B., 2019. Assessing the Performance of the European Natural Gas Network for Selected Supply Disruption Scenarios Using Open-Source Information. Energies 12(24). http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12244685

Kalinina, A., Spada, M., Burgherr, P., 2018. Alternative life-loss rates for failures of large concrete and masonry dams in mountain regions of OECD countries, in: Haugen, S., Barros, A., Gulijk, C.v., Kongsvik, T., Vinnem, J. (Eds.), Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World. CRC Press, London, UK.

Kyriakidis, M., Lustenberger, P., Burgherr, P., Dang, V., Hirschberg, S., 2018.Quantifying energy systems resilience - A simulation approach to assess recovery, Energy Technology. https://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ente.201700841

Sudret, B., 2007. Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis in Mechanical Models: Contributions to Structural Reliability and Stochastic Spectral Methods, Habilitation a diriger des Recherches, Universit’e Blaise Pascal: Clermont-Ferrand, France

 

Sidebar

General Contact

Technology Assessment Group
Paul Scherrer Institut
5232 Villigen-PSI
Switzerland

Group Leader
Dr. Peter Burgherr
Telephone: +41 56 310 2649
E-mail: peter.burgherr@psi.ch

Vacancies at TA

We are looking for a postdoctoral fellow on environmental life cycle assessment of carbon dioxide removal technologies.

We are looking for Master, Internship and Semester Project students willing to join the group! Click Here for more info:

  • Masters Thesis Openings
  • Semester Projects Openings
  • Open positions @ MEST (ETH Zürich)
top

Footer

Paul Scherrer Institut

Forschungsstrasse 111
5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland

Telephone: +41 56 310 21 11
Telefax: +41 56 310 21 99

How to find us
Contact

Visitor Centre psi forum
School Lab iLab (in German)
Center for Proton Therapy
PSI Education Centre
PSI Guest House
PSI Gastronomie (in German)
psi forum shop

Service & Support

  • Phone Book
  • User Office
  • Accelerator Status
  • PSI Publications
  • Suppliers
  • E-Billing
  • Computing
  • Safety (in German)

Career

  • Working at PSI
  • Job Opportunities
  • Training and further education
  • Career Center
  • Vocational Training (in German)
  • PSI Education Center

For the media

  • PSI in brief
  • Facts and Figures
  • Media corner
  • Media Releases
  • Social Media

Follow us: Twitter (in English) LinkedIn Youtube Facebook Instagram Issuu RSS

Footer legal

  • Imprint
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Editors' login