BAFU GOTHENBURG-2010

Duration: 2004-2005

Contact: Sebnem Aksoyoglu, sebnem.aksoyoglu@psi.ch

This study is about the investigation of the effect of numerous regulations enforced in Europe to improve air quality, on ozone with the focus on Switzerland, using an air quality model. The future scenarios for the year 2010 following the Gothenburg Protocol were also studied.

• In this study we investigated the effect of numerous regulations enforced since 1985 to improve air quality, on ozone in Europe with the focus on Switzerland, using an air quality model for a specific summer period. Several emission scenarios for 2010 from the Gothenburg Protocol were also simulated. The model results suggest that the emission reductions of ozone precursors should have been effective to reduce ozone production between 1985 and 2000 in northern Switzerland. However, observations do not indicate any significant change in surface ozone levels since early 1990s. The results of this project support the hypothesis that the decrease in local ozone production due to emission reductions might have been partly or completely compensated by the simultaneous increase in the background ozone.

Ozone and Ox (O₃+NO₂) trends observed at various NABEL surface stations during summer 1992-2002 and model trend for 1985-2000 with and without increase (0.5 ppb/year) in background ozone

• In 2010, a strict application of the Gothenburg Protocol in Europe would lead to a decrease in peak ozone concentrations by about 5% in Switzerland under the meteorological conditions applied. Our calculations also indicated that emission controls only in Switzerland would not be very effective to improve the air quality in the future. The further development of the background ozone will in any case be very important for the tropospheric ozone levels.

Journal Articles

Influence of various emission scenarios on ozone in Europe
Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S., Keller, J., Ordonez, C., Tinguely, M., Schultz, M., and Prevot, A. S. H.
Ecological Modelling, 217, 209-218,2008
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.022

Conference Contributions

Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S., J. Keller, C. Ordonez, A.S.H. Prevot, M. Schultz, Impact of various emission scenarios for 1985-2010 on ozone in Switzerland, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 2006.

Reports

Keller, J., Andreani-Aksoyoğlu, S., M. Tinguely, and Prevot, A. S. H.: Emission scenarios 1985-2010 : Their influence on ozone in Switzerland, Paul Scherrer Institute, PSI Report 05-07, 2005.

BAFU