BAFU GOTHENBURG-2020

Duration: 2011-2012

Contact: Sebnem Aksoyoglu, sebnem.aksoyoglu@psi.ch

In this project we studied the effects of revised Gothenburg target emissions for 2020 on air quality in Europe with a focus on Switzerland by means of a 3-dimensional, regional air quality model (CAMx).

The results of this project give an overview on predicted nitrogen deposition and the concentrations of ozone and particulate matter in Europe for the past and present and for different emission scenarios for 2020. They also indicate the importance of the background ozone concentrations in Europe for use in calculating AOT40 and SOMO35 trends. Our results show that the application of emission reductions according to the BL scenario would lead to a significant decrease in PM2:5 (about 30 %) in 2020 compared to 2005. The largest predicted decrease in PM2:5 based on the MTFR scenario was about 50–60 %, especially in the eastern part of Europe, Our model results suggest that the nitrogen deposition decreased by 10–30% in the eastern part of Europe between 1990 and 2005, whereas it increased in the Iberian Peninsula. Further reductions in emissions until 2020, according to the baseline scenario, would lead to about 40% lower oxidized nitrogen deposition – mainly due to a reduction in the oxdized fraction – while deposition of reduced nitrogen compounds would continue to increase in most of Europe.

Relative changes in annual average PM2:5 concentrations over the European domain for the baseline scenario (BL 2020–2005)

Relative changes in annual average PM2:5 concentrations over the European domain for the maximum technically feasible reduction scenario (MTFR 2020–2005)

Modelling of air quality in Switzerland in the context of the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol PSI Report Nr. 13-02, 2013

Journal Articles

Aksoyoglu, S., Keller, J., Ciarelli, G., Prévôt, A. S. H., and Baltensperger, U.: A model study on changes of European and Swiss particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen deposition between 1990 and 2020 due to the revised Gothenburg protocol, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 13081-13095, 10.5194/acp-14-13081-2014, 2014.

Conference Contributions

Changes in air quality of Europe between 1990 and 2020: A modeling study HARMO15, Madrid, 2013

A model study on the effects of emission reductions on European air quality between 1990 and 2020 ITM Conference Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XXIII, Miami, 2013

Changes in nitrogen deposition in Europe between 1990 and 2020 HARMO16, Varna, 2014

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