Accident Risk Assessment
In the PSI’s comparative risk assessment framework two standard methods are commonly used: frequency-consequence (F-N) curves and aggregated indicators. The former is a common way to express collective and societal risk in a quantitative assessment, while the second provides a direct comparison between energy chains and country groups in a comprehensive way, by considering a variety of factors, because no single aspect can provide the full picture.
F-N curves can be either calculated empirically based on historical accident data or through a fully probabilistic risk assessment. These curves are defined as the relationship of the cumulative frequency (F) of events having N or more units of interest (e.g., fatalities, injured persons, spilled material, economic losses, etc.). On the other hand, risk indicators are estimated in different ways, depending on the aspects under interest. Common risk indicators for comparative purposes are fatality rates, which are a measure of the expected fatalities per unit of energy produced,and the maximum credible consequences (e.g., number of fatalities) in a single accident, which is defined as the worst possible accident in a given time period. Other risk indicators that have been used in past studies include the accident rate, the average number of fatalities per accident, the Value-at-Risk, etc.
A selection of references on the topic are shown below, whereas other publications can be found here.
Burgherr, P., Spada, M., Kalinina, A., Vandepaer, L., Lustenberger, P., Kim, W., 2019. Comparative Risk Assessment of Accidents in the Energy Sector within Different Long-Term Scenarios and Marginal Electricity Supply Mixes, in: Beer, M., Zio, E. (Eds.), 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference. Research Publishing, Hannover, Germany, pp. 1525-1532. http://dx.doi.org/10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0674-cd
Spada, M., Paraschiv, F., Burgherr, P., 2018. A comparison of risk measures for accidents in the energy sector and their implications on decision-making strategies. Energy 154, 277-288. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.110
Lordan, R., Spada, M., Burgherr, P., 2015. Import-adjusted fatality rates for individual Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries caused by accidents in the oil energy chain. Journal of Cleaner Production 108, Part A, 1203-1212. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.08.097
Burgherr, P., Hirschberg, S., 2014. Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector. Energy Policy 74, Supplement 1, S45-S56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.035
Burgherr, P., Hirschberg, S., Spada, M., 2013. Comparative Assessment of Accident Risks in the Energy Sector, in: Kovacevic, R.M., Pflug, G.C., Vespucci, M.T. (Eds.), Handbook of Risk Management in Energy Production and Trading. Springer US, pp. 475-501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-9035-7_18