Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates (AMPERE)

The project AMPERE is aiming for a broad exploration of mitigation pathways and associated mitigation costs under various real world limitations, while at the same time generating a better understanding about the differences across models, and the relation to historical trends. Uncertainties about the costs of mitigation originate from the entire causal chain ranging from economic activity, to emissions and related technologies, and the response of the carbon cycle and climate system to greenhouse gas emissions. AMPERE will use a sizable ensemble of state-of-the-art energy-economy and integrated assessment models to analyse mitigation pathways and associated mitigation costs in a series of multi-model intercomparisons. The project focuses on four central areas:

  1. The role of uncertainty about the climate response to anthropogenic forcing on the remaining carbon budget for supplying societies around the globe with energy,
  2. the role of technology availability, innovation and myopia in the energy sector,
  3. the role of policy imperfections like limited regional or sectoral participation in climate policy regimes, and
  4. the implications for decarbonisation scenarios and policies for Europe.

For more information see Ampere webpage

Marcucci, A. and H. Turton (2013). Induced technological change in moderate and fragmented climate change mitigation regimes, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, in press, DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.10.027, Download post-print copy (0.5MB)

Kriegler, E., K. Riahi, N,. Bauer, V.J. Schwanitz, N. Petermann, V. Bosetti, A. Marcucci, S. Otto, L. Paroussos, S. Rao, T. Arroyo Curras, S. Ashina, J. Bollen, J. Eom, M. Hamdi-Cherif, T. Longden, A. Kitous, A. Méjean, M. Schaeffer, K. Wada, P. Capros, D. van Vuuren, O. Edenhofer (2013). Making or breaking climate targets: The AMPERE study on staged accession scenarios for climate policy, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, revised version

Bauer, N., V. Bosetti, K. Calvin, M. Hamdi-Cherif, A. Kitous, D. McCollum, A. Méjean, S. Rao, H. Turton, L. Paroussos, S. Ashina, K. Wada, D. van Vuuren (2015). CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. Volume 90, Part A, pp. 243–256, in press, DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.009

Riahi, K., E. Kriegler, N. Johnson, C. Bertram, M. den Elzen, J. Eom, M. Schaeffer, J. Edmonds, M. Isaac, V. Krey, T. Longden, G. Luderer, A. Méjean, D. McCollum, S. Mima, H. Turton, D. van Vuuren, K. Wada, V. Bosetti, P. Capros, P. Criqui, M. Hamdi-Cherif, M. Kainuma, O. Edenhofer (2013). Locked into Copenhagen Pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, in press, DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.016

AMPERE consortium (2014). Assessing Pathways toward Ambitious Climate Targets at the Global and European Levels: A synthesis of results from the AMPERE project, Download (1.1MB)