Evangelos Panos, Head of LEA’s Energy Economics Group, took part in the inaugural Climate Week Zurich in early May, giving the keynote speech at the event "Delivering on the Swiss Energy Transition" organised by UBS.
Which policy mix actually delivers? What will the transition cost? And which dependencies does Switzerland need to keep, reduce, or derisk? These were the three strategic questions addressed by Evangelos Panos during his keynote speech at Climate Week Zurich.
His main message: Switzerland’s energy transition is no longer about setting targets. Is now about execution, coordination, and delivery – and the decisive window is the next decade. By 2030, the direction of the transition becomes visible; by 2035, many infrastructure, technology and investment choices are already largely locked-in.
The short version of the answers to those three questions:
- No single instrument is sufficient and policy works best when instruments reinforce each other. The most robust pathways combine standards and obligations, targeted subsidies and stronger alignment with the EU rules.
- The Swiss net-zero transition is a capital reallocation, not a large macroeconomic burden – when markets remain open. Incremental investment rises, but GDP impacts remain modest. However, financing conditions matter: higher capital costs can increase system costs and shift the technology mix, making targeted de-risking important.
- Dependencies do not disappear; they change form. Fossil fuel import dependence declines, but new dependencies emerge around clean molecules, metals and critical raw materials. Some remaining emissions and external costs are located abroad, making supply chain standards and international partnerships part of climate strategy.
Switzerland will not transition in isolation
It is also important to realise Switzerland's broader context. Although the country accounts for less than 0.1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is deeply integrated into the EU and global markets. Swiss decarbonisation is shaped by spillovers through energy markets, infrastructure, trade, policy alignment and technology learning. At the same time, Swiss choices affect others through supply chains, procurement decisions and externalities.
The key takeaway: delivering the Swiss energy transition requires acting early, combining policy instruments intelligently, keeping markets open, and managing dependencies strategically.
Thank you to all organisers, speakers, and participants for the good discussion and for making this event so worthwhile.
The presentation drew largely from results from the POLIZERO research project, which concluded last year. POLIZERO received funding from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy and was carried out by the Energy Economics Group at PSI-LEA along with the Technoeconomics of Energy Systems laboratory at University of Piraeus.
