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Profile – November 2005

Real people, real science
Profile Mathias Bosshardt, Physicist

A career chosen by the luck of the dice

Mathias Bosshardt may not have studied physics had he not won the chance to visit PSI as a high school student. Wavering between studying law or the natural sciences, participating in the Autumn School at PSI – a place won with a throw of a dice - convinced him that physics was the right choice.

Now a member of a small team at PSI, the Complex Systems Group, Mathias is doing his doctoral work on the complex factors involved in the purchase choice of a natural gas, versus a petrol driven vehicle. His work involves computer aided modelling of various factors; from the hard facts of fuel prices to the possible psychological and social indicators present when choosing a vehicle. Although his figures pertain to fleet buyers, to a certain extent they can be applied to private automobile use.

Even though natural gas cars cost CHF 2,000-5,000 more than an equivalent petrol vehicle, the difference in fuel prices means that in this example, after 45 months the amortisation rate becomes positive and after 85 months the cost difference has been redeemed and from then on fuel costs are continually saved. (See graph)

Yet it is not just money that is saved by switching to natural gas cars. In this example CO2 emissions are reduced by 400 tonnes.

Mathias’ work should be useful to fleet managers, such as delivery firms or taxi owners, as well as government policy makers who need to decide how and when sustainable mobility should be subsidised.

The possibility of making an impact in the area of sustainable mobility is a personal motivating factor for Mathias, and yet he is also really fascinated by the methods of his science - systems analysis and system dynamics modelling. The past seven months at PSI have been a rich experience he says, a gamble in life which paid off.
The blue line is the additional cost in CHF incurred by replacing a fleet of petrol or diesel cars with natural gas vehicles. The red line would be replacement with more of the same petrol or diesel cars. The blue curve falls steeply but rises again just as steeply because of the higher purchase price but lower running costs of the natural gas cars, amortising the additional investment over time. This example is of a 400 vehicle fleet which is replaced continuously due to normal aging.